A few weeks ago, Andrea and I took part in our first prediction run. Bull City Running Company organized “Shot in the Dark”, a 6k on the American Tobacco Trail.  The point of the race was not to go the fastest, but to guess the time you thought you could finish in and then see how close you could get to that mark. You’re not allowed to have a phone or a watch, so it is a test of how well you know your own pacing.  Since we both ran this one, we thought it would be fun to compare experiences.

Predicting our Pace

Adam: When we registered for the race, I thought about what I felt I could comfortably run and picked a pace of 7:30 per mile. Between that time and the race, though, it got really hot and humid.  I had training runs of 6-8 miles where I bonked and had to walk running a pace fairly close to 7:30 per mile. Luckily, at sign-in for the race we could change our prediction so I decided to go with 7:45 per mile, which upped my total time by about a minute.  I don’t know why I picked 7:45, though. There was no bonus for going faster, and my runs varied between the low-mid 7’s and the low-mid 8’s so I didn’t exactly know what it felt like to run 7:45. It just seemed to feel right.

Andrea: This race sounded fun, and I honestly thought that, unlike any regular race of any distance, I might have a chance to “beat” Adam (spoiler alert: the joke was on me). I was preemptively smug about this possibility. I can’t remember my exact prediction, but I also upped my time at sign-in.

Handling the Race

Adam: I tried to settle into a groove and not worry about the runners around me, but that was hard. If I passed someone, did that mean adrenaline had gotten the better of me? If they passed me, had I fallen off my pace? I’m used to being able to look at my watch to check my pace, but in this case I didn’t have anything to go on. I tried to find a 1-2-3-4 rhythm to center myself through these moments, actually tapping my fingers to the rhythm at times. I also found that watching how fast the trees went by helped as well (at least until it got dark).

Andrea: Since I normally run 5:1 splits (with my watch informing me when it’s time to walk), I had to adjust to not being able to do that. I used the markers on the trail that marked every 1/4 mile and didn’t walk until after the halfway point. After that, I felt like I’d gone out too fast for my predicted time so tried to slow down. The weirdest thing about this race to me was running in the dark on a trail. The only light came from mine and other runners’ head lamps. For the last mile or so, I was mostly by myself, and that freaked me out a little. I felt safe but I was super conscious of being alone on a dark trail.

Favorite Moments

Adam: There were a couple of things I really liked about this race. First, running on the Tobacco Trail at night was fun. I wasn’t sure I would need the headlamp, but by the end we did. It was a unique experience to not see much in front of you but to generally feel safe because you are on a greenway and not a technical trail.

Second, I liked the equalizing effect of the race. Andrea and I run different paces in races but it was nice to have one where we were on the same foot and could compare results. Age, gender, elite status… none of it really matters in a prediction race.

Finally, I liked the discipline it imposed. One of the things I am trying to prep for with Richmond this fall is not going out too fast, and I feel like this was good mental practice for that. I had to have confidence in my abilities and running my own race whether passing or being passed.

Andrea: The race organizers kept it light before the race and that was fun, with one joking after asking if anyone had done a prediction race before that those who had could go for a PR. The post-race awards ceremony was also fun to see how close people had come to their predicted times. Running at night was different.

How We Did

Adam: After finishing, I had the sense that I had run the race a little faster than I predicted. A thunderstorm had cooled things off and I felt good. I expected to have been off by 30-45 seconds total, but when I scanned the results I saw that I missed my predicted finish time by only seven seconds! The winner was only one second off her time, but mine was good enough for sixth and a nice New Balance hat for a prize. I should probably retire from prediction races, because I don’t know if I could ever get closer.

Andrea: I also felt like I had run faster than I predicted, but to my surprise, I’d run 1:15 slower. I was very proud of Adam and impressed with him and all the other runners who came so close to their predictions. I’ll go for a PR next time 😉

Closing Thoughts

This was a great experience. It provided something different Andrea and I could both enjoy and tested us in a new way. I think we would both do a prediction race again.